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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-08-01T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-01T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32420/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is an M8.2 flare and eruption from Active Region 13768 (S15W80) starting around 2024-08-01T07:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible in GOES SUVI 171, 195, and 284 imagery at this time as well. Arrival: there is a clear ICME arrival signatures with a shock (according to analysis by the LASSOS team (Carlos Perez Alanis). During the shock B total reaches 19.5 nT and density gets increased to 20p/cc, followed by a period of significant negative Bz reaching -17nT. This signature of ICME shock is preceded by a less clear disturbance in the magnetic field at L1 with Btotal increasing from 8nT at 2024-08-04T04:48Z to 15nT at 06:11Z followed by a protracted period of negative Bz.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-04T13:21Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-03T12:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Glancing blow.

SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters TBD

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Aug 02 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
...Region 3768 (S16W85, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced most
of the flare activity and was the source of the largest flare of the
day, a long-duration M8.2 (R2) at 01/0709 UTC with associated Type II
and IV radio bursts and a 500 sfu Tenflare. ...
Analysis and modelling of the CME associated with the M8.2 flare from
Region 3768 results indicated a possible glancing blow midday to late on
03 Aug.

Lead Time: 73.33 hour(s)
Difference: 25.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-08-01T12:01Z

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